Under some Assumptions, this model of Demographic Balance is efficient …
Main Assumptions :
- Increase of population, to sump up = SUM(Births) – SUM(Deaths)
- The balance below focus on the birth aspect, it’s then a “Births-Oriented” Demographic Balance
- Death age is supposed constant in that model
- Public Policies in Health intervene at different levels (“Offer of Children” with the “Quality” of Health… and “Public finances” for the financial aspect of Health Politics…) to sump up…
- It’s a very simple model, reality is much more complex…
- In particular concerning Environment, you can see a special term : the Ecosystem Status or “Set of texts that resolve the situation of an Ecosystem” that is used here… there are other components of Environmental Element… You can add for example “Quality of Ecosystem” as so on…
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That Balance depends on 3 keys factors:
the 2 main factors are demand for chidren and offer for children reaching to their own balance
the third factor is the Public Policies (consequence of the first balance above or incitatives)
Demand of Children depends on 3 key elements :
- Quality VS Quantity with the roles of Children as Retirement of Insurance for Parents, of Parental investments in Education …
- Cultural Environment like for example Confucianism in China
- Individual Preferences
Offer of children depends on 2 key elements:
- Body Capacities to create life
- Environmental influences on Fertility of couples
The third key Factor, Public Policies is more specific because it is structural and organisational : Opinion Leaders, Public Finances, Medias, Individuals…
With the 3 Key Factors, we obtain a balance with a quantity of children born linked to their “price” on the Demographic Market.
Of course, it’s a dynamic model and all econometric specialist know the complexity of such models. More, the concept of price for a Child is a theorical economical concept that can be used to make a balance, only…
